This report provides relatively detailed documentation of a simulation model that we applied in order to quantify the economic consequences of the East enlargement to the Danish economy. The extensive number of simulations goes to illustrate the order of magnitude of various economic mechanisms in the model. Hence the simulations should not be considered our final official assesment of the impacts of the enlargement to Denmark. Most notably terms of trade effects induced by catching up of CEE countries are considered important but remain unimplemented in the experiments presented in this report.
The work presented here would not have been possible without the fruitful discussion and insights of Lars Haagen Pedersen. Obviously, a simulation study of the kind presented here requires extensive amounts of data and we are grateful to our former colleagues at Statistics Denmark for guidance and provision of useful datasets. Tim Folke, Asger Olsen and Morten Werner have been very helpful in providing us with IO and capital data and have extended us the courtesy of guiding us through some of the intricacies of interpreting these figures. With respect to data queries specifically for international trade but also the operation of the database for ADAM we are grateful to Tony M. Kristensen.
The work presented here is the result of a joint effort. Morten Lobedanz Sørensen have primarily attended to the empiric foundation while the implementation of the model in the GAMS simulation software was attended to by Anders Due Madsen. The formulation of the model, experiment design and the interpretation of the results was conducted by the both of us. For contact information, please see the cover sheet.